HEY THERE!!! So I've been putting off doing a theory bc idk I'm tired. But the latest piece of lore patchy_bug gave us was Riuh's redesign, which if you look into the code, you can find a little document. The Hawthorn Institute: In simple terms, it's a document promoting a new education system/thingy for gifted animals. WHICH SHOWS US HOW THE WHOLE GANG GOT THERE IN THE FIRST PLACE!! Now we have an extra piece to the puzzle, I think Lio & Thimble lived in the same forest, were sort of friends/kinda like brothers. They saw a flyer of said Hawthorn Institute, filled out the form- (Which is why Thimble's room in the question game looks much like an apartment/dorm), And they couldn't pay for it... Unless they do their 200 hours of community work, (How they got into the circus in the first place, or at least what I assume) I think they thought of it as a sort of easy way to get through the work- which was why they couldn't leave it bc they would have had to pay the tuition. The rest is sort of speculative. SO! Something happened that made they really want to quit. But they were poor, since if you quit at anytime you still have to pay full, even if you leave campus, and stop classes. I believe that Riuh was the one who got the flyer first, because they were probably the reason why Thimble got the flyer, (Pretty sure they're cousins.) So Riuh got some of the other cats, Luna first, then it's either Lio or Thimble, and I have no idea if Mouri managed to get out, if they even liked the circus. (I don't want to search rn, so imma try and add that to my next theory.) Then the events of "A Place To Stay" happened, basically I think it was Lio reminiscing about the old times, but being plagued by what he had done, and the reason why finding a place to stay was the bad ending was because it was implying that Lio wouldn't face the truth of his actions, and that he wanted to stay in the past, and maybe some implications of hypothermia in the snow.
Now this is my dissection of the Hawthorn institute, (I hope I don't lose any of you people) Anyways, So, Hawthorns are a thorny plant with red berries. Red could symbolize Lio's change, physical and mental, because Lio's eyes changed, and their mental health worsened. There is also a mysterious person, The Thorn Prince. We have no idea who the Thorn Prince is, but I may have an idea. Which is closely tied to the Hawthorn Institute. Hawthorns have well, Thorns. Considering it's in their name. When I think of Thorns I think of a certain crown of Thorns. That can symbolize rebirth, and transformation. There's also this line in the last sentence of the document. "We look forward to unlocking your true potential!" There it is. The theme of transformation, and if you look at all the characters, the circus is clearly changing them, inside and out. Just look at Thimble and Lio, the two who were aiming to be a star. The star. And considering how stars can die out... I have a feeling something may happen to Mouri, from what Thimble said, He was the old star. Too old to keep being the star. Anyways, let's go away from my Hawthorn tangent... Now why do we think Thimble was turned into a plushie? We can confirm that he wasn't as marketable as Lio, which is why he was chosen over Thimble, but... I want to look at this one role of clowns, The whiteface, and the Auguste. (These are the actual names) The whiteface is typically the head clown... With the Auguste being the servant, *The Doll* or, even a puppet. They always manage to get into some sort of misfortune, (Like maybe getting buttons sewn to your eyes) Which causes people to laugh. Maybe it was their way to make him more profitable. A ragdoll to inflict all the pain upon. Uh yeah! I'm finished. Bye bye Oh and also, The change of their names, Thio to Thimble, Lilo to Lio, is another symbol of transformation, and their "True potential" and giving up their past selves to gain this, "True potential" (Kinda like a cult ngl)