Fine, I concede. El Nino has formed and is strengthening at an incredible pace, forcing me to put my predictions in the below-average range. However, conditions in the Atlantic are still more favorable than other years with a Strong/Very Strong El Nino (excluding 2023), so the Atlantic still has some potential. Even if hurricane season is expected to be below average, do NOT sleep on your hurricane preparations. Hurricanes have found ways to cause extreme damage even in the quietest seasons. Also, do NOT underestimate any storm that isn't a major hurricane, because they can still cause life-threatening hazards to those who are unprepared. 12/16/2025 and 5/1/2026 archive: https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/1256243322
@XxStormTracks for music Since forecast uncertainty is at an all time high, this outlook will likely be updated. Updates and their dates are listed below: 12/16/2025: Made my first forecast predicting 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 majors, citing warm sea surface temps, a neutral phase, and an active West Africa Monsoon 5/1/2026: Lowered my predictions to 17 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 majors, taking note of the increased chance of El Nino forming, but still questioning the accuracy of El Nino and sea surface temp predictions 6/28/2026: Lowered my predictions AGAIN to 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 majors due to the incredible development of El Nino, but still seeing some potential in the Atlantic 6/29/2026: Oops. Forgot to hide the thumbnail.
