The estimation is made like this: calculating the average of the days and months (the first Scratch Day event happened between the 24th to 26th of July), round up the average, and choosing the day close to that average that it lands on a Saturday. Month average 2008: July 2009: May 2010: May 2011: May 2012: May 2013: May 2014: May 2015: May 2016: May 2017: May 2018: May 2019: May 2020: May (the whole month) (7+5+5+5+5+5+5+5+5+5+5+5+5) / 13 = =5.1538461538462 (May) 7,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5 Day average 2009: 24 2010: 19 2011: 21 2012: 19 2013: 18 2014: 17 2015: 9 2016: 14 2017: 6 2018: 12 2019: 11 2020: 1 (Because it's a Scratch Month, it's considered to start at the beginning of the month and the first day in May is the 1st of May) (24+19+22+21+19+18+17+9+14+6+12+11+1) / 13= =14.846153846154 (rounded is 15th of May) 24,19,22,21,19,18,17,9,14,6,12,11,1 The 15th of May lands on a Saturday so this is the estimated start of the next Scratch Day.
