Estimates by me may differ from official reports - Hurricane Iota was a catastrophic storm that struck Nicaragua in November 2020. The storm started off in the Caribbean, and followed the 2020 trend of rapidly intensifying overnight on November 15, into the morning of the 16th, peaking as a high-end category 4 with winds of 155 mph and a pressure of 916 mb. The storm weakened slightly but was still a category 4 when it struck Nicaragua. The storm struck less than 15 miles from where hurricane Eta made landfall as a category 4 just 13 days prior. The impacts of Eta and Iota combined caused nearly 10 billion dollars in damages and 301 fatalities by my analysis, and the storms are the worst to impact central America since Mitch. Due to the catastrophic impacts of the hurricanes, F13 ran a charity stream. - Operationally, both me and the NHC assessed the storm to have peaked as a category 5, due to recon SFMR readings marginally into category 5 intensity. However, it is safe to assume these SFMR readings were too high because: 1) Ongoing research has found that SFMR readings above 125 knots have a high bias. This research, however, is only preliminary 2) The readings were found near the island of Providencia. There were likely significant breaking waves near the island, which can cause a high-bias in the SFMR instrument. 3) The highest flight level wind measured in Iota was 147 knots, which would translate to a ground wind estimate of "only" 132 knots. Research by me has found that storms with small inner cores as well as storms undergoing or finishing a rapid intensification phase may have a higher ground wind speed than these conversions would suggest, but not high enough to support a category 5. 4) During my reanalysis of Iota in December 2020, I noted the recon data not pointing towards C5, but I called it C5 due to it's very impressive satelite structure. However, storms in areas where the tropopause is particularly high will naturally have higher cloud tops, which brought SIM295 estimates from 175 mph to 165 mph. Although still supportive of category 5, it is no longer enough to override the recon data, which is a better indicator of intensity. - Tags: #Scratchmaster295 #TropicalCyclone
