LORE: Operation Valkyrie succeeds, and the Nazi's are put out of power. They negotiate surrender with the allies, Italy unlike Germany in this world, continues to fight. Which leads to much harsher terms than in our timeline.
Note, this is probably too lenient on Germany. Though with the Soviet part of Potsdam, only really giving them East Prussia, and not splitting Germany up. Note II: Italy, is pretty much dismantled, and is almost entirely reverted pre-unification, so post-war italy would be very VERY depressing, with tons of famine etc. while Germany would be the exact OPPOSITE, as the allies were much more lenient due to their surrender, pretty much mimicking Japan.